Homebuilder Stocks: Key Growth Drivers in a Changing Economy

Current state of the housing market

The current state of the housing market shows improved demand, with companies like KB Home reporting lower cancellation rates and PulteGroup adjusting home starts based on market conditions. D.R. Horton and Lennar emphasize their extensive market reach and strategies to meet housing demand, indicating a resilient market landscape.

"So there's certainly value from market share. And we think at the size that we're at today at roughly 31,000 units and we're in every major housing city, we have national market scale. So I" --- (PHM, conference, 2024/05/14)

"D.R. Horton has operations in 121 markets in 33 states across the United States and is engaged in the construction and sale of high-quality homes through its diverse product portfolio with sales prices generally ranging from $200,000 to over $1,000,000." --- (DHI, press release, 2024/08/28)

"Our cancellation rate as a percentage of gross orders for the three months ended May 31, 2024 improved from the year-earlier period, reflecting stronger housing market demand in the current period." --- (KBH, sec filing, 2024/Q2)

"That partnership is clearly reflected in their solid results. So, now turning to our balance sheet, this quarter, once again, we were steadfast in our determination to turn our inventory and generate cash by maintaining production and pricing homes to market with the goal of delivering as many homes as possible to meet housing demand." --- (LEN, earning call, 2024/Q2)

"Based on the current demand conditions and construction cycle times, we continue to start homes at a pace consistent with closing 31,000 homes this year, as well as positioning the company to grow 5% to 10% in 2025, consistent with the multiyear outlook we have discussed previously. Through the first few weeks of July, traffic to our communities has been solid, but depending on how demand conditions and absorption paces evolve up or down in each market over the balance of the year, we will adjust our starts pace as needed. Now let me turn the call over to Bob for a review of our second quarter results." --- (PHM, earning call, 2024/Q2)

Trends in consumer demand for housing

Consumer demand for housing remains strong but is constrained by factors like affordability and interest rates. Homebuilders are adjusting incentives to navigate these challenges, with seasonal trends influencing sales pace and market conditions impacting buyer support strategies.

"There are challenges, and there are opportunities. The demand for housing remains strong and limited by affordability, interest rates, and sometimes labor and consumer confidence." --- (LEN, earning call, 2024/Q2)

"And it appears that maybe incentives are similar as you see them going in 4Q versus 3Q, but if it's had any impact on either incentives or just more broadly demand trends as those rates have come in a little bit in the last month or so." --- (DHI, earning call, 2024/Q3)

"While we believe that we could lower our use of these incentives as the spring selling season unfolded, given the strength of the market conditions early in the spring, the move-in rates impacted demand to an extent, and we continued using mortgage concessions to support our buyers." --- (KBH, earning call, 2024/Q2)

"And I'm asking because it seems even flow, your model, which helps obviously cost, creates a little incentive seasonality, which I think separate from the macro and the rates, because when you build a house, first-half less sales demand, so it's kind of like selling ice in the winter versus the second-half, I believe, is your thinking based on past trends." --- (LEN, earning call, 2024/Q2)

"I'd love your take on just how the demand trends, how the sales pace has come in through the door maybe versus your expectations and if incentives in the marketplace have changed at all around that." --- (DHI, earning call, 2024/Q2)

Impact of interest rates and government policies

Interest rates significantly impact homebuilder margins and consumer confidence. Companies like KB Home and D.R. Horton are adapting strategies to manage costs and maintain affordability, while Lennar emphasizes cash flow stability despite rate fluctuations. Overall, rising rates challenge buyer sentiment and operational margins in the homebuilding sector.

"As we talked about earlier in the year, we, like most people, had an expectation of rates actually coming down and being able to reduce some of the mortgage interest rate incentives that we've had out there that unfortunately has not happened as of this point, and that put a little bit of pressure on the back-end margins." --- (KBH, earning call, 2024/Q2)

"Interest incurred by our homebuilding operations decreased 33% to $11.5 million and 40% to $34.2 million in the three and nine months ended June 30, 2024, respectively, compared to $17.2 million and $57.1 million in the prior year periods, primarily due to decreases of 14% and 19% in our average homebuilding debt." --- (DHI, sec filing, 2024/Q3)

"One, psychology and consumer confidence. So when rates uptick in early -- kind of early April, I think that had a real impact in kind of the confidence level of consumer when it comes to is now the right time to buy." --- (PHM, earning call, 2024/Q2)

"By consistently focusing on our land life strategy, we have materially enhanced and generated consistent cash flow through the ups and downs of interest rate changes, and we have enhanced our balance sheet and our liquidity." --- (LEN, earning call, 2024/Q2)

"playing that game for a while in the face of these higher interest rates in order to generate affordability for our buyers." --- (KBH, earning call, 2024/Q2)

Supply chain challenges in homebuilding

While some homebuilders like D.R. Horton report no supply chain challenges, others, such as KB Home, are seeing improvements with faster build times and a normalizing supply chain. Strategic partnerships, like D.R. Horton's with 4 Star, are also helping to address lot shortages in the industry.

"Paul Romanowski: Yes, we've seen that mostly from -- we don't really have supply chain challenges." --- (DHI, earning call, 2024/Q3)

"We are realizing the potential of our business as our operations return to a steady rhythm given faster build times and a normalizing supply chain." --- (KBH, earning call, 2024/Q2)

"Our strategic relationship with 4 Star is a vital component of our returns-focused business model for our home building and rental operations. For 4 Star's strong, separately capitalized balance sheet, growing operating platform, and lot supply, position them well to capitalize on the shortage of finished lots in the home building industry, and to aggregate significant market share over the next several years. Mike?" --- (DHI, earning call, 2024/Q1)

Technological innovations in homebuilding

Technological innovations in homebuilding are driving growth, with companies like KB Home leading in energy efficiency, achieving a HERS Index score of 46. Lennar emphasizes smart home technology and modern designs, while PulteGroup focuses on innovative home layouts that cater to lifestyle preferences, enhancing the overall homebuying experience.

"He was instantly hooked with the design and innovation of the homes, and he’s excited to own a home that is at the forefront of change in the homebuilding industry." --- (LEN, Twitter, 2024/08/04)

"In 2023, KB Home achieved the following outcomes: Energy-Efficiency Leadership: KB Home's 2023 national average Home Energy Rating System® (HERS) Index score was 46, which is 54% more efficient than a typical home built in 2006 and underscores the company’s longstanding commitment to helping homebuyers lower their utility bills and preserve natural resources." --- (KBH, press release, 2024/04/22)

"That’s why we put so much thought into the way our homes are designed. Whether you want to entertain indoors or outdoors, our homes reflect how you want to live. Learn more about our innovative home designs: https://t.co/HkpxPxx69w" --- (PHM, twitter, 2024/06/10)

"From smart home technology to modern designs and features, Lennar has reimagined the homebuying experience by including the most desired features at no extra cost to you." --- (LEN, Twitter, 2024/05/24)

Regional variations in homebuilding activity

Homebuilding activity varies significantly by region, as highlighted by D.R. Horton's segmented operations across six reporting regions and PulteGroup's extensive presence in 46 markets across 26 states. This regional focus allows companies to adapt to local demand fluctuations effectively.

"I am confident that under Brian's leadership, we will continue to offer our customers the greatest homebuilding experience in the greater Denver area." --- (PHM, press release, 2024/04/12)

"(3) Lots controlled at March 31, 2024 included approximately 34,300 lots owned or controlled by Forestar, 17,300 of which our homebuilding divisions had under contract to purchase and 17,000 of which our homebuilding divisions had a right of first offer to purchase." --- (DHI, sec filing, 2024/Q2)

"As always, we are prepared to adjust our cadence of spec starts up or down in response to sustained changes in overall higher demand. Based on the units we have under construction and their stage of production, we currently expect to close between 7,400 and 7,800 homes in the third quarter and continue to expect to close approximately 31,000 homes for the full year." --- (PHM, earning call, 2024/Q2)

"Our homebuilding operating divisions are aggregated into six reporting segments, also referred to as reporting regions, which comprise the markets below." --- (DHI, sec filing, 2024/Q3)

"Homebuilding Segment Operations As of June 30, 2024, we conducted our operations in 46 markets located throughout 26 states." --- (PHM, sec filing, 2024/Q2)