How AI Correction is Influencing Broader Market Trends
July 26, 2024
Note: We reveal investment insights through the quotes of top business leaders.
Key Takeaways
- Major tech companies are balancing expense moderation with continued investment in AI and technical infrastructure, impacting their financial performance and shareholder sentiment.
- Investment strategies are increasingly integrating environmental policies, focusing on expense and capital efficiency, and shifting towards higher yielding assets and non-interest bearing liabilities.
- Regulatory changes are significantly influencing AI development, with companies like Nvidia and IBM adapting through partnerships and governance tools to ensure compliance.
- AI correction is driving increased R&D and innovation, with companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta reallocating resources to enhance core and emerging technologies.
Impact on Major Tech Stocks
Major tech stocks like Google, Meta, and Amazon are moderating expense growth and increasing operational efficiency while continuing to invest in AI and technical infrastructure. Google's AI risks with Bard impacted shareholders, while Meta's AI efforts contributed to strong revenue growth and new product launches.
"Our leadership team remains focused on our efforts to moderate the pace of expense growth in order to create capacity for the increases in depreciation and expenses associated with the higher levels of investment in our technical infrastructure. Once again headcount declined quarter-on-quarter." --- (GOOG, earning call, 2024/Q2)
"Investment Philosophy We expect to continue to build on the discipline and habits that we developed in 2022 when we initiated several efforts to increase our operating efficiency, while still remaining focused on investing in significant opportunities." --- (META, sec filing, 2024/Q1)
"We expect spending in technology and infrastructure to increase over time as we continue to add employees and infrastructure." --- (AMZN, sec filing, 2024/Q1)
"They urged Alphabet to pause and consider all the risks associated with this new technology so that the company could establish risk mitigation practices. Yet our company raced forward with Bard without the appropriate guardrails in place and unfortunately shareholders felt the consequences." --- (GOOG, event transcript, 2024/06/07)
"2023 was our year of efficiency where we focused on making Meta a stronger technology company and improving our business to give us the stability to deliver on our ambitious long term vision. And not only did we achieve our efficiency goals, but we also returned to strong revenue growth, saw strong engagement across our apps and shipped a number of exciting new products like threads, Ray Ban Meta Smart Glasses, Mixed Reality and Quest III and established a world class AI effort." --- (META, event transcript, 2024/05/29)
Shifts in Investment Strategies
Investment strategies are shifting towards integrating environmental policies, focusing on expense and capital efficiency, and leveraging operating leverage for reinvestment. Additionally, there's a trend towards higher yielding assets and non-interest bearing liabilities, reflecting broader market trends influenced by AI correction.
"While I commend the company's commitments to achieve net 0 financed emissions by 2,050 and allocate $1,000,000,000,000 toward the environmental transition, The bank's backtracking on policies regarding financing new coal mines, coal fired power plants and Arctic drilling are big steps in the wrong direction.This apparent move away from previous stance suggests a potential shift in the bank strategy and associated risk exposure, necessitating enhanced disclosure to investors regarding its energy supply financing." --- (BAC, event transcript, 2024/04/24)
"And through this innovation of integrating investment strategies around insurance wrappers can really narrow the outcomes that the individual can have a very narrow corridor of what the dollar amount that they're going to be earning each month." --- (BLK, earning call, 2024/Q1)
"So as we execute this strategy, we believe we'll continue to deliver the results you expect, highlighted by our rigorous focus on expense and capital efficiency and strong earnings and returns while we make the critical investments in our future." --- (JPM, event transcript, 2024/05/20)
"Part of the issue becomes, as you've heard me talk about, if you just have some folks looking at revenues and some folks looking at expenses, which sometimes happens at these global investment banks, well then how do you think about educating people on what is sort of on the run savings and how that can help create operating leverage, which allows the business unit to reinvest in" --- (MS, conference, 2024/06/10)
"In the second quarter, we further reduced our historical principal investment portfolio by $2.2 billion to $12.6 billion.On page nine, firmwide net interest income was $2.2 billion in the quarter, up sequentially from an increase in higher yielding assets and a shift towards non-interest bearing liabilities. Our" --- (GS, earning call, 2024/Q2)
Regulatory Impacts on AI
Changes in export control rules and evolving AI regulations are significantly impacting AI development. Companies like Nvidia and IBM are addressing these challenges through partnerships, governance tools, and frameworks to ensure compliance and manage risks, while Tesla faces unique regulatory concerns with autonomous vehicle deployment.
"Given the increasing strategic importance of AI and rising geopolitical tensions, the USG has changed and may again change the export control rules at any time and further subject a wider range of our products to export restrictions and licensing requirements, negatively impacting our business and financial results." --- (NVDA, sec filing, 2025/Q1)
"Watsonx.governance enables them to manage and govern their AI solutions in an automated way, with the ability to customize solutions to their unique needs as they bring on more AI capability and respond to evolving AI regulations around the world." --- (IBM, press release, 2024/05/21)
"Is there a different regulatory concern just if you deploy a vehicle like that that doesn't have pedal -- pedals or a wheel, and that may not be different from just regular FSD on a traditional Tesla vehicle." --- (TSLA, earning call, 2024/Q2)
"Our partnerships with state and federal agencies ensure that we together are thoughtfully and collaboratively addressing challenges like content safety, model risk mitigation and data privacy protection.We have also developed and released trustworthy AI technologies, including Nemo Guardrails, an open source tool for language models that allow developers and companies to control or prohibit prompts and outputs." --- (NVDA, event transcript, 2024/06/26)
"With the integration of watsonx.governance and Amazon SageMaker, IBM Consulting will be able to help joint clients establish a responsible AI framework to support their Amazon SageMaker initiatives across the enterprise – while managing model risk, demonstrating regulatory compliance and monitoring model performance." --- (IBM, press release, 2024/05/21)
Impact on Innovation and R&D
AI correction is driving increased investment in R&D and innovation across major tech companies. Amazon and Microsoft are leveraging AI to accelerate development and productivity, while Google and Meta are reallocating resources to enhance core and emerging technologies. Apple remains committed to innovation despite macroeconomic challenges.
"In addition to accelerating the development of generative AI (GenAI) capabilities in the Falcon Platform, CrowdStrike has been using GenAI technologies on AWS to accelerate its R&D teams and increase the pace of innovation throughout the company." --- (AMZN, press release, 2024/05/02)
"The agreement will also accelerate productivity and new innovations in AI. Cloud Software Group's engineering organizations are deploying GitHub Copilot to all their engineers with the goal of increasing developer productivity by over 20% - thus accelerating the pace of R&D across the organization." --- (MSFT, press release, 2024/04/04)
"in sales and marketing and G&A, offset by an increase in R&D. The largest single factor in the year-on-year decline in G&A expenses was lower charges related to legal matters." --- (GOOG, earning call, 2024/Q1)
"As we push innovation forward, we continue to manage thoughtfully and deliberately through an uneven macroeconomic environment and remain focused on putting our users at the center of everything we do." --- (AAPL, earning call, 2024/Q2)
"Next, I'd like to discuss our approach to capital allocation. We continue to see compelling investment opportunities to both improve our core business in the near term and capture significant longer term opportunities in Generative AI and Reality Labs." --- (META, earning call, 2024/Q1)